Sonoma County Economy looking better!
Article published - Mar 3, 2007 County economy looking better Contrary to previous estimate, Sonoma County gained the most jobs last year since 2001
By MICHAEL COITTHE PRESS DEMOCRAT
Sonoma County's latest employment numbers contained surprisingly good news as the region added 2,900 jobs last year - the most in five years - in a sign the economy continues gaining strength. Revised figures issued Friday by the state Employment Development Department showed the local economy was not losing jobs in the fall and winter, as state labor analysts had previously estimated, but actually gained jobs in each month of last year."The nice thing about the trend that's being shown right now is the growth has been very steady over the last year and a half," said Steve Cochrane, research economist with Moody's Economy.com. "As we revise our forecast, 2007 might be a little better than expected."
Economists tracking Sonoma County's economy have said they expected job numbers to improve when the state completed its annual March revision of job data. Previous monthly employment reports estimated the county's economy was on track to shed more than 2,000 jobs last year as the housing slowdown took hold, raising fears the county was on the verge of recession. But the state's latest report found local employers were hiring last year at their fastest clip since 2001. "It's a very positive report card," said Ben Stone, executive director of the Sonoma County Economic Development Board.
The report put the county's jobless rate at 4.3 percent in January, down slightly from 4.4 percent a year ago. As expected, unemployment rose from December, when 3.6 percent of the county's labor force was looking for work. Unemployment typically rises every January, a seasonal increase that occurs when construction work slows and retailers let go of temporary workers hired for the holidays.
This year, employers cut 1,900 jobs between December and January.Only four California counties had lower jobless rates in January: Marin and Orange, at 3.6 percent, and San Mateo and Mono, at 3.8 percent.Overall, employment grew 1.5 percent last year to 195,200 jobs. It was the strongest showing since 2001, when the county slipped into a two-year recession. Employment growth was concentrated in several sectors. Leading the way were professional and business services, with 1,700 new jobs; construction, with 700; health care, with 500; local schools, with 400; and wholesale trade, with 300.
The loss of 500 manufacturing jobs offset some of the gains, but even that sector showed signs of bouncing back heading into this year. Some of the gains likely reflect a spillover effect from the broader Bay Area, where economies from San Francisco to Silicon Valley and the East Bay have been growing at a stronger pace than Sonoma County. "
It shows that we have been gaining jobs as opposed to losing them. And it's a pretty good mix, it's not just lower-paying service jobs. We've been adding jobs for people at all levels," Stone said. Generating higher-income jobs is critical to steering the county away from recession in the months ahead." The income being generated by the economy can slow down. That's where you can see the recessionary effects - less spending, fewer tax revenues," said Robert Eyler, chairman of the Department of Economics at Sonoma State University. " There is an outside chance that we can avoid recession if the job growth continues in a mix of jobs." Sonoma County's job growth this year is projected at 2 percent by both Cochrane and Eyler. Cochrane sees only a 25 percent chance of recession, but Eyler puts the odds at 65 percent.
Both economists noted that the recent stock market declines are a cause for concern if they continue. Business confidence could be shaken, leading to fewer purchases of capital equipment and other investments and even job losses. The latest business confidence survey by the county Economic Development Board found a doubling in the number of businesses that expected to boost capital spending." The confidence is there for now," Eyler said. Despite the seasonal increase in unemployment, job growth surged in January. The county added 6,500 jobs in January, compared with the same month a year ago, a robust 3.4 percent increase. The economists were wary, however, and said the state's estimate could be too high. Monthly employment estimates, which are based on sample data, are revised every March to make them more accurate. The job figures for the preceding year are updated, based on detailed tax records submitted by employers. California's unemployment rate was 4.8 percent in January, down from 5.1 percent a year earlier. Based on the revised EDD data, the state added 251,400 nonfarm payroll jobs last year, a 1.7 percent gain over 2005. In Mendocino County, unemployment remained at 6.4 percent in January, unchanged from a year earlier. The county has added 300 jobs over the last year, boosting employment to 31,300. In Lake County, unemployment dipped to 8.5 percent in January, down from 8.6 percent a year ago. The county has added 200 jobs in the past year, lifting employment to 14,180.Last changed: Mar 3, 2007 © The Press Democrat. "" Not bad news at all!!!!!!" Jeromey
By MICHAEL COITTHE PRESS DEMOCRAT
Sonoma County's latest employment numbers contained surprisingly good news as the region added 2,900 jobs last year - the most in five years - in a sign the economy continues gaining strength. Revised figures issued Friday by the state Employment Development Department showed the local economy was not losing jobs in the fall and winter, as state labor analysts had previously estimated, but actually gained jobs in each month of last year."The nice thing about the trend that's being shown right now is the growth has been very steady over the last year and a half," said Steve Cochrane, research economist with Moody's Economy.com. "As we revise our forecast, 2007 might be a little better than expected."
Economists tracking Sonoma County's economy have said they expected job numbers to improve when the state completed its annual March revision of job data. Previous monthly employment reports estimated the county's economy was on track to shed more than 2,000 jobs last year as the housing slowdown took hold, raising fears the county was on the verge of recession. But the state's latest report found local employers were hiring last year at their fastest clip since 2001. "It's a very positive report card," said Ben Stone, executive director of the Sonoma County Economic Development Board.
The report put the county's jobless rate at 4.3 percent in January, down slightly from 4.4 percent a year ago. As expected, unemployment rose from December, when 3.6 percent of the county's labor force was looking for work. Unemployment typically rises every January, a seasonal increase that occurs when construction work slows and retailers let go of temporary workers hired for the holidays.
This year, employers cut 1,900 jobs between December and January.Only four California counties had lower jobless rates in January: Marin and Orange, at 3.6 percent, and San Mateo and Mono, at 3.8 percent.Overall, employment grew 1.5 percent last year to 195,200 jobs. It was the strongest showing since 2001, when the county slipped into a two-year recession. Employment growth was concentrated in several sectors. Leading the way were professional and business services, with 1,700 new jobs; construction, with 700; health care, with 500; local schools, with 400; and wholesale trade, with 300.
The loss of 500 manufacturing jobs offset some of the gains, but even that sector showed signs of bouncing back heading into this year. Some of the gains likely reflect a spillover effect from the broader Bay Area, where economies from San Francisco to Silicon Valley and the East Bay have been growing at a stronger pace than Sonoma County. "
It shows that we have been gaining jobs as opposed to losing them. And it's a pretty good mix, it's not just lower-paying service jobs. We've been adding jobs for people at all levels," Stone said. Generating higher-income jobs is critical to steering the county away from recession in the months ahead." The income being generated by the economy can slow down. That's where you can see the recessionary effects - less spending, fewer tax revenues," said Robert Eyler, chairman of the Department of Economics at Sonoma State University. " There is an outside chance that we can avoid recession if the job growth continues in a mix of jobs." Sonoma County's job growth this year is projected at 2 percent by both Cochrane and Eyler. Cochrane sees only a 25 percent chance of recession, but Eyler puts the odds at 65 percent.
Both economists noted that the recent stock market declines are a cause for concern if they continue. Business confidence could be shaken, leading to fewer purchases of capital equipment and other investments and even job losses. The latest business confidence survey by the county Economic Development Board found a doubling in the number of businesses that expected to boost capital spending." The confidence is there for now," Eyler said. Despite the seasonal increase in unemployment, job growth surged in January. The county added 6,500 jobs in January, compared with the same month a year ago, a robust 3.4 percent increase. The economists were wary, however, and said the state's estimate could be too high. Monthly employment estimates, which are based on sample data, are revised every March to make them more accurate. The job figures for the preceding year are updated, based on detailed tax records submitted by employers. California's unemployment rate was 4.8 percent in January, down from 5.1 percent a year earlier. Based on the revised EDD data, the state added 251,400 nonfarm payroll jobs last year, a 1.7 percent gain over 2005. In Mendocino County, unemployment remained at 6.4 percent in January, unchanged from a year earlier. The county has added 300 jobs over the last year, boosting employment to 31,300. In Lake County, unemployment dipped to 8.5 percent in January, down from 8.6 percent a year ago. The county has added 200 jobs in the past year, lifting employment to 14,180.Last changed: Mar 3, 2007 © The Press Democrat. "" Not bad news at all!!!!!!" Jeromey
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