Forecasters see end to Sonoma County housing woes

(((GOOD NEWS???)))

Sonoma County’s slumping real estate market should finally hit bottom in late 2008, ending a three-year slide that has already wiped out almost $120,000 in value from the typical home.



A pair of new forecasts project home prices could tumble 6 to 9 percent in 2008 before the county’s housing sector stabilizes in the fall or winter. Even then, the local real estate market will remain sluggish for another year or two, analysts forecast.

Home values, which peaked in August 2005 when the median hit $619,000, have already dropped 19 percent. In November, a typical single-family home sold for $500,000 in Sonoma County.

Pegging the bottom remains a difficult task for economists, who have underestimated the severity of the county’s housing slump. Most economists now agree that home prices and sales will decline even more before the housing market levels off.

In response, local builders are bracing for their worst year in at least two decades. The number of new apartments and houses put up in the county next year is projected to dip under 1,000 units for the first time since the building industry began tracking housing starts in 1988.

“It was hard to imagine this housing cycle would be as deep as it is. And it’s got a ways to go still. This is big,” said Steve Cochrane, regional economist for Moody’s Economy.com.

The outlook for housing has deteriorated as rising foreclosures push more homes onto the market at the same time tighter lending standards squeeze out potential buyers.

Falling prices are drawing people into the market, but the demand is dwarfed by the number of homes for sale with supplies in the county at a 12-year high. Homes are taking four months to sell, on average, and often only after sellers cut their asking price.

“Buyers are really wary right now. If you’ve got a glut of housing, it takes awhile for buyers to work through those,” said Luke Tilley, senior economist for Global Insight, a Lexington, Mass., forecasting firm. “It gets worse before it gets better.”

Housing’s change of fortune is creating winners and losers. Sellers are weary of watching the value of their homes drop month after month, while buyers who were priced out of the market are now seeing opportunities that were out of their reach just two years ago.

In Windsor, Ashley Long paid $470,000 earlier this month for a four-bedroom house that was worth $630,000 near the market’s peak. The sellers, which originally listed the home at $525,000, cut the price twice to attract a buyer.

“Six months ago this kind of house wasn’t out there for her,” said Long’s agent, Tim Souza, with Century 21 Alliance in Windsor.

A first-time home buyer, Long looked at more than 50 houses over three months, trying to find the nicest house for the lowest price. She didn’t hesitate, however, to make an offer on the Windsor house after Souza spotted the latest price reduction, yet Long still went under the seller’s amount.

“I got a pretty good deal. I know this is a low market and the house is worth more than that,” Long said.

To lower her monthly mortgage payment, Long made a 10 percent down payment to lock in a low interest rate on a 30-year loan.

“It’s the only time I’m going to be able to afford to buy in Sonoma County,” she said. “I can’t imagine it going down a lot lower, and eventually it has to come back up. I don’t want to gamble.”

How low prices will go and when housing hits bottom have been moving targets for economists as all indicators — sales, prices and housing starts — continue to slip.

“It will be more severe than we previously forecast,” Tilley said.

The latest Sonoma County housing outlooks from both Moody’s Economy.com and Global Insight forecast the price for a typical house should decline another 6 to 9 percent next year.

“It’s going to be another tough year ahead,” Cochrane said.

A more optimistic outlook from the California Association of Realtors in October will likely be revised downward, said Leslie Appleton-Young, the association’s chief economist.

The association’s initial forecast called for a 4 percent drop in prices statewide next year. The declines could be potentially steeper in Sonoma County due to fallout from the subprime loan crisis and because housing here remains costly for first-time buyers.

“There’s more risk on the downside,” she said. “I just don’t know how much lower we can go. It’s close to as bad as it’s ever been.”

Next year could mark an all-time low for residential construction in Sonoma County, considered a good gauge of where the market is headed. This year, housing starts are on pace to settle near the low of 1,464, reached in 1996. Next year, builders are expected to construct between 785 to 960 new homes in Sonoma County, according to the latest forecasts by Moody’s and Global Insight.

“That’s builders really reacting to what’s going on with demand,” Tilley said. “There’s so many homes for sale. People are still on the fence about building.”

The housing market peaked in the summer of 2005, ending an eight-year boom that nearly tripled the price of the typical home in Sonoma County. Home values began dropping in July 2006 as buyers balked at paying ever higher prices. Foreclosures shot up this year, adding to a burgeoning supply of homes for sale. Conditions deteriorated further in August when lenders tightened the money supply, initially for less qualified buyers and then for others at higher price levels.

Entry-level buyers have felt the squeeze most. As a result, the price of homes under $500,000 has tumbled at more than twice the rate of higher-priced homes.

“The demand may be there but the lack of financing is holding that back,” Cochrane said. “Mortgage credit is the most difficult to get for first-time buyers now. Also, that hinders the ability at the low and middle tiers to move up. They just can’t sell their own house and that works to slow the market down.”

While homes are selling and buyers who can stay in the market are finding deals, sales must pick up substantially before prices level.

“The buyers are waiting for it to hit bottom and I don’t think many people think we’re there yet,” Appleton-Young said.

For many would-be buyers, Sonoma County home prices remain too high compared with what they can afford. Home prices rose far faster than incomes during the housing boom.

Sonoma County home prices were “extremely overvalued” from 2004 through much of 2006 and since have returned to being “moderately overvalued,” according to a study by Global Insight and National City Corp., a Cleveland bank.

Some families have enjoyed an increase in their buying power, as lower prices combined with favorable interest rates reduce monthly mortgage costs. The typical mortgage payment for Sonoma County buyers was $2,214 in November, down 11 percent from $2,488 a year ago, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

But prices still have room to fall and then need to remain flat for a year or two to significantly boost sales, Cochrane said.

Prices should hit a floor by third quarter of next year, according to Tilley and Appleton-Young, with Cochrane pegging it to the fourth quarter.

Each of those forecasts assumes the national economy doesn’t dip into a recession, yet the chances for one have risen.

The direction of the economy and housing are now linked in fundamental ways. Housing’s slowdown has generated job losses in real estate, lending and construction, and cut into consumer spending. Sluggish job and income growth in other sectors is sapping demand for housing.

“We’re kind of walking the line of recession. We’re going to squeak by,” Tilley said. “The pessimistic view would be a recession in the first two quarters.”

You can reach Staff Writer Michael Coit at 521-5470 or mike.coit@pressdemocrat.com.

Santa Rosa makes list of most secure U.S. cities

Santa Rosa makes list of most secure U.S. cities

BY PAUL PAYNE
THE PRESS DEMOCRAT

Despite headlines about gang violence, home loan foreclosures and other social ills, the Santa Rosa-Petaluma region is one of the most secure places to live in the country, according to an insurance company study released Monday.

Among 127 mid-size cities, the region ranked No. 17 based on a review of such things as crime statistics, air quality, job loss and terrorist threats.

The study was released by by Los Angeles-based Farmers Insurance Group.

Santa Rosa-Petaluma was ranked third in the state among regions with populations from 150,000 to 500,000 behind San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles (No. 3 nationally) and Santa Barbara-Santa Maria (No. 15 nationally), Farmers said.

“It’s encouraging,” said Capt. Tom Schwedhelm of the Santa Rosa Police Department. “It is a validation of what we’re trying to do here.”

Crime is down overall, Schwedhelm said, but city continues to focus on reducing gang problems and traffic fatalities.

The rankings were compiled by Bestplaces.net, a firm specializing in demographic analysis including U.S. Census Bureau statistics to identify the best places to live, work or retire.

Olympia, Wash. was deemed the most secure mid-size city in the country while San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara was named the safest place with more than 500,000 people.

For towns under 150,000, Corvallis, Ore. was named No. 1. The city of Napa came in at No. 9 — the only smaller California town on the list.

Last changed: Dec 10, 2007 © The Press Democrat

Sonoma County's home prices strengthen a bit

Article published - Jul 17, 2007
County's home prices strengthen a bit
June's median hits $605,000 -- down 1.6% from a year earlier but up from May

By KEVIN McCALLUM
THE PRESS DEMOCRAT

Sonoma County's sluggish housing market showed modest signs of life in June, but agents say it's still too soon to start calling an end to the county's 2 1/2 year market tumble.
June's median resale price was $605,000, down 1.6 percent from the same month a year ago but rebounding to within $14,000 of the all-time high of $619,000.
Prices have fallen for 12 consecutive months in year-over-year comparisons, the longest decline since The Press Democrat began tracking home sales in 1990.
Inventory also continues to back up, as new listings hit a market even as buyers remain on the sidelines hoping for better deals.
But compared to the spring, June's market action contained hints brokers say are cause for optimism.
"I think there are some things that are starting to indicate we are starting to see some firming," said Rick Laws, Santa Rosa manager for Coldwell Banker, which prepares The Press Democrat's monthly home sales report.
Since January, median home prices have risen in month-to-month comparisons every month, except April, surging 11 percent, from $545,000 to June's $605,000. In May, the median was $575,000.
Some of that rise can be attributed to seasonal fluctuation, which is why year-over-year comparisons are considered a more accurate reflection of the market's health.
But an 11 percent price increase is significant by any comparison and should be noted by buyers who have the impression that the market is in free-fall, Laws said.
"If you compare it to the greatest year we ever had, things don't look that great," he said. "I think the six-month trend is very encouraging."
Market activity almost always picks up in the spring when buyers shake off the winter doldrums and young families try to complete moves by the beginning of the new school year.
That makes analyzing spring market activity tricky and brokers hesitant to read too much into the month-to-month price and sales increases the market now is showing.
Even so, there are signs that the worst may be over, some brokers said.
"Have we hit bottom? I can't tell because you always have a spring surge," said Beth Robertson, an associate broker with the Century 21 in Rohnert Park. "But what I thought was positive was that this might be the beginning of the end of the downward spiral."
Those signs of improvement lie in the year-to-year numbers. They are still down, but not nearly as sharply as they have been in recent months.
June's 1.6 percent decrease was the slowest erosion in year-over-year prices in three months, with March dropping 1.7 percent, April 6.2 percent and May 4.2 percent.
"I see that as a hopeful sign the market is stabilizing," said Phil Rose, who owns a Santa Rosa real estate firm. "The prices have stopped falling."
The reason agents are hopeful but far from jubilant is because the market continues to face several challenges.
Sales activity remains weak. The 348 sales in June was up slightly over May and significantly better than earlier this year, when January and February activity couldn't break 260 sales.
Total sales were 20 percent off last June's pace, when 435 homes sold. That's a sharper drop than May's 15 percent decrease, and second only to April's 21.5 percent drop compared to 2006.
That tells some brokers that what the market really needs is for buyers to wake up and realize how good they've got it.
"This is strongest buyers market that we've seen in eight years," said Ross Liscum, co-owner of Prudential California Realty. "We just can't seem to get the buyer to acknowledge they're in the driver's seat."
Liscum blames this condition in part on the media's "doom-and-gloom" headlines, while Robertson said she's seeing plenty of activity in homes that are priced right.
"Buyers are jumping all over a good deal," Robertson said.
A recent home in Rohnert Park priced in the high $400,000s was scooped up after a $40,000 price reduction, she said. "It came down 40 and it was gone," Robertson said.
The number of single family homes for sale in June increased by 4.9 percent, to 2,568. At the current rate, it would take 7.4 months to sell that many properties.
"This is not a market for all sellers," Rosa said. "A lot of sellers can't stomach this market."
You can reach Staff Writer Kevin McCallum at 521-5207 or kevin.mccallum@pressdemocrat.com.
Last changed: Jul 17, 2007 © The Press Democrat

The Global Urban Real Estate Boom - and US!

I am posting the article below about S.F. and other major "hip" metros because there is a correlation between them & wine country values in my opinion! The high-end real estate market up here is driven by the very same individuals... Jeromey

The Global Urban Real Estate Boom
Crash? What crash? In the world's top cities, real estate has never been hotter.
By Joseph Contreras and Emily Flynn Vencat
Newsweek International
March 19, 2007 issue - Cedric Cañas has been living the life of a handsomely paid expatriate for most of the past 12 years. The 33-year-old Spanish banker has spent time in both Boston and London, but it is New York City that he knows best, having first come to Manhattan in 1997. Cañas sold his one-bedroom Battery Park apartment at the end of 2005 when he was transferred to Madrid, but this winter he was sent back to the Big Apple, and he recently purchased a two-bedroom flat in Midtown for $1.3 million. Only this time around, Cañas intends to keep his New York property no matter where he goes next. "New York City is one of the principal cities of the world for finance; people from all over the world are coming here," says the Harvard Business School graduate. "At some point down the road, I'll probably be coming back to New York as well."
Cañas is a perfect example of the high-earning, globe-trotting cosmocrats who are driving housing prices skyward in the choicest world cities. From San Francisco and Seattle to Moscow and Shanghai, prices for prime residential property are surging, even as overall national numbers in some markets continue to be depressed amid worries of global recession and a real-estate bubble. The triumph of the glamour cities turns conventional wisdom on its head—for quite a while, experts including Yale's Robert Shiller have been predicting that these cities, having been hyped the most, would likely fall farthest, fastest. The decoupling of national and local real-estate trends, which were once much more closely linked, reflects the lives of the new "superprime" property buyers themselves, roughly 50 percent of whom are expatriates, according to the global-property research firm Jones Lang LaSalle. While globalization has allowed money, but not necessarily people, to roam the world more freely, Cañas and his colleagues are an exception—they float on a cushion of international capital, largely immune to regional concerns, and are flush with cash.
They're getting even more flush. A second consecutive year of big bonuses for bankers and traders has helped reignite demand for residential property in coveted neighborhoods like London's South Kensington and the Upper West Side of New York. Even outside these chief financial capitals, a decade of bull markets has swollen the ranks of the superrich so much that there is now a class of property buyer who can collect pied-à-terre apartments in Paris and Buenos Aires the way the merely wealthy collect cars or wine. With so much money in so many more people's pockets, the demand for luxury housing in the most-sought-after cities has simply outstripped available supply, hence the eye-popping prices. This is especially true in the toniest quarters of these cities, where growth is often double or even triple the over-all city figures. "It's quite an interesting irony that these buyers are globally footloose," says Sue Foxley, head of residential-property research at Jones Lang LaSalle, "because there are probably only 100 streets around the world on their shopping list."
Not surprisingly, demand is highest in the business hubs—the globe-trotters want to live in style in the places where they work. In a city like Shanghai, the concentration of high-end service industries like banking and insurance has sent prices skyrocketing to levels three times higher than those in the political capital of Beijing. A similar phenomenon is at work in India, where prime-real-estate prices in the business capital of Mumbai shot up by 90 percent in 2006, outpacing even the impressive 60 percent rise in prices posted in New Delhi during the same period. The numbers underscore the disproportionate effect that the most highly paid service workers have on property prices. The urban real-estate markets where such talents congregate become what New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg once called "a luxury product [that] offers tremendous value."
While the "value" of a $1.5 million two-bedroom apartment remains debatable, the macroeconomic factors bolstering the boom are not. Superstar cities have their own individual growth dynamics, but they are helped along by the Goldilocks global economy (not too hot, not too cold). Although interest rates are starting to creep up across the world, they're still hovering at historic lows, between 5 and 6 percent. This, coupled with strong and in some instances spectacular growth in many parts of the world, make a property meltdown unlikely. "In a low-inflation, low-interest-rate environment, housing busts are relatively mild by historical standards," notes Nariman Behravesh, chief economist of the Massachusetts-based economic forecasting and consulting firm Global Insight. "As long as interest rates remain low, you'll see a housing recovery and then a reacceleration."
In places like New York, there was never really a deceleration. The National Association of Realtors reported last month that nationwide housing prices in the United States fell by an average of 2.7 percent in the last quarter of 2006. But prices in Manhattan were up by 14.4 percent in January of this year, according to the real-estate appraisal firm Miller Samuel. By some estimates, more than half of the top luxury buyers were expatriates, many of whom are cashing in on a weak dollar. "The market has been really flying since a couple of weeks before Thanksgiving, and good properties have been moving quickly," says Harriet Norris, a New York City broker for the real-estate firm Prudential Douglas Elliman. "It's not that I think New York City or Manhattan is impervious to a downturn, but none of the indicators are there to make it happen."
The gravity-defying dynamics of high-end real estate in the world's top cities contradicts the famously gloomy vision of chief property Cassandra Robert Shiller. The Yale economist made his reputation seven years ago, when he correctly predicted the stock-market collapse in his book "Irrational Exuberance." In the second edition of that book, he applied the same analysis to the overheated housing market in the United States, blaming much of the staggering rise in prices on illogical herd mentality. Shiller is sticking by predictions of a 40 percent drop in housing prices in real terms over the next 20 years, and continues to warn that the bursting of the real-estate bubble will likely induce a major recession. "There's a lot of faith in glamour cities, but these cities have been around for hundreds of years, going up—and down," says Shiller. I don't see any reason why this [upward] trend should continue this time."
But others aren't so sure. In the new edition of "Irrational Exuberance," Shiller drew heavily on the pioneering research work of Piet Eichholtz, a Dutch professor of real-estate finance who charted housing prices in a fashionable residential district of Amsterdam from 1628 to 1973. Eichholtz concluded that real housing prices grew by a mere 0.2 percent annually over the span of nearly 350 years, and Shiller cited those figures to support his general thesis that real-estate values rise very modestly over the long term. But Eichholtz himself does not foresee a collapse in housing prices in many of the world's hot cities, including Amsterdam and Paris, for the next five to 10 years, because increasing urbanization and the growth of global wealth has more people chasing a limited number of city-center properties. "I'm not saying this process will continue forever," he notes. "But for now, my prediction is growth."
Further evidence that top cities may be less vulnerable to the usual boom-and-bust cycle comes from a lengthy working paper written by three economists from the Wharton School of Business and Columbia University for the non-profit National Bureau of Economic Research. The researchers identified several American cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle and Boston that attract ever-larger numbers of high-income people willing to pay a premium to live there. The rise of such cities is rooted in the unprecedented proliferation of very affluent families in the United States that occurred in the second half of the 20th century. While the total number of families living in U.S. metropolitan areas doubled during that period, the number making more than $140,000 annually in constant 2000 dollars grew by eightfold.
Though the study focused on America, one of its authors sees a parallel process underway in some foreign capitals. "You need a combination of two things: a growing number of high-income folks who want to be together in a certain market and an unwillingness or inability to provide substantially larger numbers of new housing," says real-estate and finance professor Joseph Gyourko of the Wharton School. "Certainly London fits the mold and so does Paris, where you have a growing economy, a skewing of income distribution and very limited supply in the areas that are much in demand."
Of course, not all major world cities are enjoying a rebound in housing prices. Hong Kong has experienced a genuine collapse in its residential-property market, where prices fell by 2.6 percent in the third quarter of last year after soaring by more than 20 percent in the same period of 2005. In Australia, housing price increases in once thriving Sydney are lagging behind the national average. In both cases, rising interest rates were to blame.
The bigger worry is, what (if anything) could bring high-end real-estate markets to their knees en masse? Certainly a sustained depression in the world economy would induce a plunge in housing prices, no matter how tony the address might be. If the past is any guide, central bankers would play a big part in such a debacle. "The lesson we learn from history," says Milan Katri, chief economist of Britain's Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, "is that policy errors are almost always at fault when it comes to housing busts." Consider the 1990s, when policymakers in Tokyo failed to cut interest rates fast enough to cushion a steep fall in the economy. Huge numbers of homeowners defaulted on their mortgages, and banks stopped issuing new loans. Britain experienced a similar disaster over the same time period, when a too-steep rise in rates (they doubled in less than a year) caused a housing crash.
There are plenty of experts who say central bankers have gotten a lot smarter since then—they understand the global economy and their effects on it much better, and know enough to avoid such bad policy decisions. A greater threat to the supercity boom might come from the globalization that started it in the first place. As the middle classes everywhere increasingly worry about downward mobility, protectionist rhetoric and a backlash against free trade and liberalization have been brewing, not only in Europe and the usual developing countries, but also in places like the United States, where, most recently, Democratic Party leaders in Congress may withhold approval of recently negotiated free-trade agreements with Colombia and Peru to reduce the influx of cheap imported goods.
The reintroduction of trade barriers and currency controls would undoubtedly slow down global growth, and eventually cripple residential real-estate markets. It's happened before: a real-estate boom in the United States during the 1920s was aborted by the adoption of protectionist policies, which also helped set the stage for the Great Depression. Property prices back then fell even in the world's greatest cities. That's worth remembering as ex-communist tenement flats in Moscow garner wait-lists of buyers, and dark London mews houses on hip blocks sell for 30 percent above their asking prices. If the power brokers of the world can't figure out a way to ensure that their prosperity trickles down a bit faster, their own houses may eventually take the hit.
© 2007 Newsweek, Inc.

Sonoma County Economy looking better!

Article published - Mar 3, 2007 County economy looking better Contrary to previous estimate, Sonoma County gained the most jobs last year since 2001
By MICHAEL COITTHE PRESS DEMOCRAT

Sonoma County's latest employment numbers contained surprisingly good news as the region added 2,900 jobs last year - the most in five years - in a sign the economy continues gaining strength. Revised figures issued Friday by the state Employment Development Department showed the local economy was not losing jobs in the fall and winter, as state labor analysts had previously estimated, but actually gained jobs in each month of last year."The nice thing about the trend that's being shown right now is the growth has been very steady over the last year and a half," said Steve Cochrane, research economist with Moody's Economy.com. "As we revise our forecast, 2007 might be a little better than expected."
Economists tracking Sonoma County's economy have said they expected job numbers to improve when the state completed its annual March revision of job data. Previous monthly employment reports estimated the county's economy was on track to shed more than 2,000 jobs last year as the housing slowdown took hold, raising fears the county was on the verge of recession. But the state's latest report found local employers were hiring last year at their fastest clip since 2001. "It's a very positive report card," said Ben Stone, executive director of the Sonoma County Economic Development Board.
The report put the county's jobless rate at 4.3 percent in January, down slightly from 4.4 percent a year ago. As expected, unemployment rose from December, when 3.6 percent of the county's labor force was looking for work. Unemployment typically rises every January, a seasonal increase that occurs when construction work slows and retailers let go of temporary workers hired for the holidays.
This year, employers cut 1,900 jobs between December and January.Only four California counties had lower jobless rates in January: Marin and Orange, at 3.6 percent, and San Mateo and Mono, at 3.8 percent.Overall, employment grew 1.5 percent last year to 195,200 jobs. It was the strongest showing since 2001, when the county slipped into a two-year recession. Employment growth was concentrated in several sectors. Leading the way were professional and business services, with 1,700 new jobs; construction, with 700; health care, with 500; local schools, with 400; and wholesale trade, with 300.
The loss of 500 manufacturing jobs offset some of the gains, but even that sector showed signs of bouncing back heading into this year. Some of the gains likely reflect a spillover effect from the broader Bay Area, where economies from San Francisco to Silicon Valley and the East Bay have been growing at a stronger pace than Sonoma County. "
It shows that we have been gaining jobs as opposed to losing them. And it's a pretty good mix, it's not just lower-paying service jobs. We've been adding jobs for people at all levels," Stone said. Generating higher-income jobs is critical to steering the county away from recession in the months ahead." The income being generated by the economy can slow down. That's where you can see the recessionary effects - less spending, fewer tax revenues," said Robert Eyler, chairman of the Department of Economics at Sonoma State University. " There is an outside chance that we can avoid recession if the job growth continues in a mix of jobs." Sonoma County's job growth this year is projected at 2 percent by both Cochrane and Eyler. Cochrane sees only a 25 percent chance of recession, but Eyler puts the odds at 65 percent.
Both economists noted that the recent stock market declines are a cause for concern if they continue. Business confidence could be shaken, leading to fewer purchases of capital equipment and other investments and even job losses. The latest business confidence survey by the county Economic Development Board found a doubling in the number of businesses that expected to boost capital spending." The confidence is there for now," Eyler said. Despite the seasonal increase in unemployment, job growth surged in January. The county added 6,500 jobs in January, compared with the same month a year ago, a robust 3.4 percent increase. The economists were wary, however, and said the state's estimate could be too high. Monthly employment estimates, which are based on sample data, are revised every March to make them more accurate. The job figures for the preceding year are updated, based on detailed tax records submitted by employers. California's unemployment rate was 4.8 percent in January, down from 5.1 percent a year earlier. Based on the revised EDD data, the state added 251,400 nonfarm payroll jobs last year, a 1.7 percent gain over 2005. In Mendocino County, unemployment remained at 6.4 percent in January, unchanged from a year earlier. The county has added 300 jobs over the last year, boosting employment to 31,300. In Lake County, unemployment dipped to 8.5 percent in January, down from 8.6 percent a year ago. The county has added 200 jobs in the past year, lifting employment to 14,180.Last changed: Mar 3, 2007 © The Press Democrat. "" Not bad news at all!!!!!!" Jeromey

* Note last paragraph (an excerpt of the article below)

BAY AREA HOUSING STRONGEST IN STATE: ECONOMIST SAYS SONOMA COUNTY MARKET NEEDS MORE RECOVERY TIME BECAUSE OF RECENT JOB LOSSESPublished on February 2, 2007© 2007- The Press DemocratBYLINE: NATHAN HALVERSON
THE PRESS DEMOCRAT PAGE: E1The Bay Area housing market is now the strongest in California and beginning to level off while other parts of the state are continuing to slump, the real estate industry's top economist in California predicted Thursday.
But Sonoma County will take longer to recover because of a recent exodus of jobs in the county, said Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors.Overall, sales of existing homes will decline 7 percent across California this year, Appleton-Young told local business leaders Thursday at the annual North Bay Economic Outlook Conference in Rohnert Park. But the downturn is tapering off, she said, compared to last year's 23 percent decline in sales.
``The worst is over,'' she said.
Prices will likely stay flat in the Bay Area for the next 18 months, she said. Statewide, prices will decline 2 percent next year, she said.
In other parts of the state, the slowdown is driven by an excess of homes, especially in the Central Valley. But in Sonoma County, where inventory is still near record lows, the housing slump will be prolonged by job losses. The county has lost 2,000 jobs over the past year, primarily in tech manufacturing, retail stores and restaurants, according to fourth-quarter figures provided by the state Employment Development Department.
The erosion of jobs in Sonoma County will likely impact sales of low- and midpriced homes the most, Appleton-Young said. Luxury homes will be affected the least, she said, because Sonoma County remains a destination for people who want to live in Wine Country or purchase a vacation home..........

my first blog, blog...

Well, here it goes... I am entering the world of Blogging! Hopefully the information, notes, thoughts, articles etc I end up posting about the Sonoma County Real Estate market is found to be useful.

I have a genuine love of our wine country and feel very fortunate spend such a large portion of my day surrounded by it's awesome beauty. My area of specialty is primarily quality rural country properties. If you own such a property or, have ever considered acquiring your own and you have a need for an energetic personality with the right connections and experience please consider me a resource.

Thanks,

Jeromey
Sotheby's International Realty
707.975.4588